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Domestic Consumption To Drive Up Growth In 2024

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BMI, A Fitch Solutions company, has forecast that economic growth in Ghana will accelerate to 3.7% in 2024, in part driven by stronger consumer activity.

In its recent comment, it said inflation will moderate substantially in 2024 – averaging 18.9%, from 40.5% in 2023 – due to statistical base effects, previous monetary tightening and more favourable exchange rate dynamics.

The sharp depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi was the key contributor to run-away inflation over 2022-23 as the country is highly dependent on imported consumer products and capital goods.

“However, we forecast that the exchange rate will strengthen by roughly 1% in 2024 (see LHS chart below) as we believe that the authorities will make progress regarding the restructuring of Ghana’s external debt under the G20 Common Framework. Indeed, we anticipate that a deal will be reached around Q224-Q324, which will improve investor sentiment towards Ghanaian assets, drive capital inflows and provide support to the cedi. Taking this into account, we project that private consumption will grow by 3.9% in 2024 – from 3.4% in 2023 – adding 3.0 percentage points to headline real GDP growth.”

Stronger FX Dynamics To Drive Down Inflation In 2024

That said, BMI said fiscal consolidation will prevent growth in household spending from returning to its five-year pre-pandemic average of 5.2%. The government introduced multiple revenue-enhancing measures in Q123-Q323, including an increase in the VAT rate to 15.0% (from 12.5% before), the institution of a personal income tax bracket of 35.0% and a 10.0% withholding tax on betting and lottery winnings.

“We believe that the implementation of more revenue measures is likely in the months ahead as the government attempts to meet its IMF targets. This will weigh on disposable incomes in 2024, capping consumer spending growth.”

Narrowing Trade Surplus To Drag On Growth

BMI stated that net exports will once again become a drag on Ghana’s economy in 2024. Our mining team projects healthy growth of 5.0% in gold production, driven by the restoration of existing mines, the introduction of new gold mining projects, and the integration of artisanal miners into Ghana’s official gold output.

“Meanwhile, our Agribusiness team forecasts growth of 3.0% in cocoa output as an increase in farmgate prices will stimulate production and reduce smuggling activity, providing tailwinds to exports next year.

“However, we expect import growth to outpace exports, narrowing Ghana’s goods and services surplus. Moderating price pressures will improve purchasing power of households and boost demand for imported consumer products in 2024. In addition, stronger business activity – in part the result of the central bank slashing interest rates by a projected 600 basis points to 22.00% by year-end – and an anticipated recovery in the construction sector will increase demand for imported capital inputs and professional services. All told, we forecast that net exports will remove 0.7pp from headline growth in 2024, down from a positive contribution of 2.1pp in 2023,” it added.

Risks To Outlook

Commenting on this, it said risks to our economic growth forecasts are skewed to the downside. There is a possibility that inflation will remain hotter than our current projection assumes due to higher-than-expected global energy prices or a stagnation in the external debt restructuring process, which would cause another round of currency depreciation.

Should this happen, the Bank of Ghana would likely keep interest rates higher for longer and public discontent with the macroeconomic predicament would result in more frequent protests and strikes. In this scenario, consumer spending and gross fixed capital formation would remain weaker in 2024 than our baseline scenario assumes.

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Ghana Reports First Oil Output Increase in Five Years With Production Rising By 10.7%

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Ghana has recorded a 10.7% increase in crude oil production in the first half of 2024, marking a reversal in a five-year trend of declining output, according to a report by Ghana’s Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC).

The growth was largely driven by the Jubilee South East (JSE) project, managed by Tullow Oil, which began production in late 2023. This addition to Ghana’s Jubilee oil field helped boost production to 24.86 million barrels by June 2024, compared to a 13.2% decline over the same period in 2023.

PIAC’s half-year report also highlighted a significant rise in petroleum revenue, which surged by 56% year-on-year to $840.8 million by mid-2024. Ghana, a country that began oil production in 2010, depends on petroleum revenue for around 7% of government income. The report further noted a 7.5% increase in gas output, reaching 139.86 million standard cubic feet by June.

Despite the positive trend, Isaac Dwamena, coordinator of PIAC, cautioned that Ghana’s petroleum sector faces both technical and financial challenges. Ghanaian law requires oil companies to allocate at least 12% of project shares to the state, a mandate Dwamena noted can deter investment due to the high cost. “The state can take 15%, 20% carried interest based on negotiations, and that has been a disincentive,” he explained.

To further drive production, Ghana is planning to sell more exploration rights, aiming to harness its fossil fuel resources while also generating funds to support its energy transition. Major oil companies operating in the country include Eni, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, and PetroSA.

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President urges universities to strengthen ties with industries

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President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has called on universities in Ghana to strengthen ties with government, industries, and the communities they serve to ensure that researches are aligned with the needs of society.

That would contribute directly to the realisation of national development goals, he said.

The President made the call at Nyankpala during a ceremony to inaugurate a three-storey multi-purpose building for the University of Development Studies (UDS).

The building fulfills the President’s promise to the UDS during its 25 Anniversary celebrations.

It is named the “Silver Jubilee Building” in remembrance of the President.

The facility boasts of offices, conference halls, lecture theaters, and houses some faculties of the university.

President Akufo-Addo said universities were “breeding grounds” for ideas, researches and innovations that drove the nation’s progress and should remain actively engaged in the development process.

He said government believed in educating the population as the bedrock of a thriving democracy, a vibrant economy and a just society.

The President, thus, outlined some policies implemented aimed at improving access to education at all levels, which included the “no guarantor policy”.

He said the policy had improved access to tertiary education as it had eliminated financial barriers that historically prevented brilliant students from pursuing higher education.

The “no guarantor policy” for student loans increased the numbers of students seeking tertiary education from 443,978 in the 2016-2017 academic year to 711,695 in the 2020-2023 academic year, an increase of 60.3 per cent.

President Akufo-Addo said his government had extended considerable energy and resources to the education sector, recognising it as the most powerful tool to transforming the nation.

He said: “The considerable budgetary allocations within the period totaling some GH¢12.8 billion, amply demonstrates the shared determination of the Akufo-Addo government to ensure that education becomes a catalyst around which the transformation of our nation revolves.”

Source: GNA

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We’ve learnt our lessons; we won’t borrow to finance 2024/2025 crop season

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The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has announced that it will transition to self-financing for the 2024/2025 cocoa crop season, starting in September 2024.

For the past 32 years, COCOBOD has relied on offshore borrowing to finance cocoa purchases through its cocoa syndication programme. However, the organization is shifting its strategy to reduce dependency on external funds.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday, August 20, COCOBOD’s CEO, Joseph Boahen Aidoo, explained that this new approach is expected to save an estimated $150 million.

“Is it good that always COCOBOD should be heard going to borrow? Are we comfortable with that tag? Today, you have heard that COCOBOD is not going to borrow. It is quite a good time for any human being to learn his or her lessons.

“In 32 years, we have learned our lessons and we think that it is high time we wean ourselves from the offshore international financial markets and then finance the crop ourselves here and that is exactly what we are going to do. And I think it comes with a lot of projectory benefits.

“We are looking for $1.5 billion this crop season and looking at the interest rates last year, which were over 8 percent, plus the cost, it means that we can save more than $150 million by the decision not to go offshore.

He also denied assertions that COCOBOD was short-changing farmers with its pricing of cocoa.

“It is not true that COCOBOD is not giving the farmers a fair price. If you follow the narrative, you will notice that from 2017 on, COCOBOD has even been more than fair.

“The government had been more than fair to farmers because this was a time when prices had collapsed but the government and COCOBOD did not reduce the farmers’ price.”

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