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Government short-term borrowing costs to drop amid easing inflation –

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The cost of government’s short-term borrowing is projected to decrease in the second half of the year, coinciding with an anticipated decline in inflation.

Treasury bill (T-bill) yields resumed their decline following a 190 basis points (bps) decrease in the annual inflation rate to 23.1 percent in May this year.

The 91-day yield declined 17bps to 24.87 percent, while the 182 and 364-day tenors lost 11bps each to 26.83 percent and 27.82 percent respectively.

In May 2024, the annual inflation rate fell primarily due to a significant 420 basis point drop in food inflation to 22.6 percent. Conversely, non-food inflation saw a slight increase of 10 basis points to 23.6 percent in May from 23.5 percent in April. This figure is expected to decrease further due to a favourable base effect and the Bank of Ghana’s stringent monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation to below 20 percent by year-end.

As a result, analysts predict that yields on T-bills – a crucial funding source for government since it lost access to international markets – will decline.

“We expect the 190 basis point drop in the annual rate to broadly improve inflation risk premium on yields. Thus, coupled with a favourable annual inflation outlook, we anticipate a decrease in T-bill yields to resume – although high government demand for funds may pose some headwinds to the pace of decline,” Databank said in a note to investors.

In the first quarter of 2024, T-bill yields across the curve shed an average of 3.49 percent, 3.63 percent and 3.61 percent for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills respectively, amid an over-subscription of GH¢14.11billion.

“Given the near-term inflation outlook, we expect the monetary policy stance to remain appropriately tight to anchor the disinflation process firmly. We maintain our outlook for at least a 400 basis point interest rate cut in 2024, most likely during the September and November policy windows as July may come too soon. We also expect money market rates to stabilise broadly around current levels, at least for the remainder of Q2 2024,” GCB Capital added in its commentary following the latest inflation figures.

This comes as the nation’s domestic debt grew to GH¢278.6billion at end-February 2024, according to the BoG’s Summary of Economic and Financial Data for May 2024.

Overall, the total public debt rose to GH¢658.6billion (62.7 percent of GDP) from GH¢611.2billion at end-2023.

Primary market

The Treasury underperformed in last week’s auction by a margin of 1.36 percent, as investors submitted total bids below the GH¢4.9 billion target. Nevertheless, the Treasury accepted all bids – exceeding the matured bids by 4.84 percent and reflecting a target coverage ratio of 0.99 times.

On Friday, June 21, 2024, the Treasury plans to raise GH¢3.56billion through the issuance of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bills to support refinancing GH¢3.35billion in maturing bills.

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Ghana Reports First Oil Output Increase in Five Years With Production Rising By 10.7%

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Ghana has recorded a 10.7% increase in crude oil production in the first half of 2024, marking a reversal in a five-year trend of declining output, according to a report by Ghana’s Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC).

The growth was largely driven by the Jubilee South East (JSE) project, managed by Tullow Oil, which began production in late 2023. This addition to Ghana’s Jubilee oil field helped boost production to 24.86 million barrels by June 2024, compared to a 13.2% decline over the same period in 2023.

PIAC’s half-year report also highlighted a significant rise in petroleum revenue, which surged by 56% year-on-year to $840.8 million by mid-2024. Ghana, a country that began oil production in 2010, depends on petroleum revenue for around 7% of government income. The report further noted a 7.5% increase in gas output, reaching 139.86 million standard cubic feet by June.

Despite the positive trend, Isaac Dwamena, coordinator of PIAC, cautioned that Ghana’s petroleum sector faces both technical and financial challenges. Ghanaian law requires oil companies to allocate at least 12% of project shares to the state, a mandate Dwamena noted can deter investment due to the high cost. “The state can take 15%, 20% carried interest based on negotiations, and that has been a disincentive,” he explained.

To further drive production, Ghana is planning to sell more exploration rights, aiming to harness its fossil fuel resources while also generating funds to support its energy transition. Major oil companies operating in the country include Eni, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, and PetroSA.

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President urges universities to strengthen ties with industries

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President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has called on universities in Ghana to strengthen ties with government, industries, and the communities they serve to ensure that researches are aligned with the needs of society.

That would contribute directly to the realisation of national development goals, he said.

The President made the call at Nyankpala during a ceremony to inaugurate a three-storey multi-purpose building for the University of Development Studies (UDS).

The building fulfills the President’s promise to the UDS during its 25 Anniversary celebrations.

It is named the “Silver Jubilee Building” in remembrance of the President.

The facility boasts of offices, conference halls, lecture theaters, and houses some faculties of the university.

President Akufo-Addo said universities were “breeding grounds” for ideas, researches and innovations that drove the nation’s progress and should remain actively engaged in the development process.

He said government believed in educating the population as the bedrock of a thriving democracy, a vibrant economy and a just society.

The President, thus, outlined some policies implemented aimed at improving access to education at all levels, which included the “no guarantor policy”.

He said the policy had improved access to tertiary education as it had eliminated financial barriers that historically prevented brilliant students from pursuing higher education.

The “no guarantor policy” for student loans increased the numbers of students seeking tertiary education from 443,978 in the 2016-2017 academic year to 711,695 in the 2020-2023 academic year, an increase of 60.3 per cent.

President Akufo-Addo said his government had extended considerable energy and resources to the education sector, recognising it as the most powerful tool to transforming the nation.

He said: “The considerable budgetary allocations within the period totaling some GH¢12.8 billion, amply demonstrates the shared determination of the Akufo-Addo government to ensure that education becomes a catalyst around which the transformation of our nation revolves.”

Source: GNA

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We’ve learnt our lessons; we won’t borrow to finance 2024/2025 crop season

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The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has announced that it will transition to self-financing for the 2024/2025 cocoa crop season, starting in September 2024.

For the past 32 years, COCOBOD has relied on offshore borrowing to finance cocoa purchases through its cocoa syndication programme. However, the organization is shifting its strategy to reduce dependency on external funds.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday, August 20, COCOBOD’s CEO, Joseph Boahen Aidoo, explained that this new approach is expected to save an estimated $150 million.

“Is it good that always COCOBOD should be heard going to borrow? Are we comfortable with that tag? Today, you have heard that COCOBOD is not going to borrow. It is quite a good time for any human being to learn his or her lessons.

“In 32 years, we have learned our lessons and we think that it is high time we wean ourselves from the offshore international financial markets and then finance the crop ourselves here and that is exactly what we are going to do. And I think it comes with a lot of projectory benefits.

“We are looking for $1.5 billion this crop season and looking at the interest rates last year, which were over 8 percent, plus the cost, it means that we can save more than $150 million by the decision not to go offshore.

He also denied assertions that COCOBOD was short-changing farmers with its pricing of cocoa.

“It is not true that COCOBOD is not giving the farmers a fair price. If you follow the narrative, you will notice that from 2017 on, COCOBOD has even been more than fair.

“The government had been more than fair to farmers because this was a time when prices had collapsed but the government and COCOBOD did not reduce the farmers’ price.”

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