From all emerging trends, the presidential primary of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) may not end on the first count. It’s likely going to be a re-enactment of the 2008 presidential nomination of the party where the first round of voting failed to produce a winner. The situation arose largely because all of the 17 aspirant nominees, except Nana Addo and Alan Kyerematen took a little chunk of the delegate-votes in the primary.

It took the magnanimity of Alan Kyerematen, the runner-up in the contest to spare NPP, the blushes of going through the toil of another bout of voting at the Great Hall of the University of Ghana, Legon. That was how Nana Akufo Addo became the flagbearer of the NPP in 2008. If Alan had insisted, with all of his marshaled resources, perhaps the script would have been different. This time, it’s only one of the candidates who is likely to push the NPP presidential primary to a second round, according to polls conducted by the Global Info Analytic (GIA).

It’s been suggested in the findings of the Global Info Analytic polls that Ken Agyapong, may even upstage the two leading front-runners, if the trajectory picked up by the Assin Central MP, should continue to November this year when the NPP presidential primary will be held. But for now, the permutation in the GIA research shows the two— Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia and Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen are running neck-to-neck, with the Vice President in a slender lead of 39 percent, against Alan’s 37 of delegates votes. Kennedy Agyapong is however, in third position with 23 percent; with the remaining one percent being shared by the rest in the pool.

Before his upsurge in numbers, the Assin Central MP was lurking a far distant third when same institution organized similar polls just before the turn of the new year—2023. However, the GIA has confirmed it its latest research that in the likely event the NPP primary went to a run-off, Alan Kyerematen will be the overwhelming favourite, beating his closet rival, Dr. Bawumia 54 percent to 46 percent. Of course, the findings seemed to confirm the popular belief within the NPP and other political circles that if the NPP primary should go for a run-off, there is every possibility the seven of the other candidates and their supporters will back the candidature of the former Trade Minister.

The man likely to disturb the emerging Alan-Bawumia duopoly is Ken Agyapong who last week, insinuated that if Alan said “his term was due to lead the NPP, he was right in his suggestion.” Of course that offered enough grounds for Alan supporters to adduce a conjecture that “even Kennedy has endorsed Alan’s candidature at the expense of his own candidacy.” That forced Kennedy to clarify his take on the subject by stating that Alan just like himself, is right to stake a legitimate claim that his time is due to lead the NPP, going into election 2024.

Kennedy summed up his assertion, claiming he together with Alan and their likes in the NPP race, have paid their dues to the NPP and therefore there would be nothing wrong with party delegates rewarding any one of them with the NPP presidential nomination. However, Kennedy could not vouch same for the Vice President, who according to many NPP stakeholders, his candidature is a breach of the party’s conservative order to usurp the turn of the Alans, Agyapongs and the Agarkos in the NPP flagbearer-ship race. It’s such conservative outlook of the NPP that has determined the party’s presidential election since the inception of the 4^th Republic to date.

Prof Albert Adu Boahen won the right to be NPP’s flagbearer by his long association with the UP tradition, which is the parent party of the NPP, although there were equally, other party purists who traced their political lineage to the UP tradition since the 50’s and the 60’s. Nana Akufo Addo himself, rode his luck relying on the conservative disposition of the NPP to win the party’s presidential nomination on three occasions. These were in 2008, 2012 and 2016 with the icing being the official party position to wholly endorse his candidature without a challenge after his first presidential term of office.

If party delegates were to go by the established convention, then the Vice President comes nowhere near being the nominee candidate of the NPP for 2024. The most legitimate candidate, most party insiders believe, especially those representing the older isle is Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen. But for his lack of visibility over the period, the most likely candidate, perhaps should have even been Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku. Then others like Boakye Agyarko, Kwabena Agyepong, who all are founding members of the party, will follow suit even before Bawumia. Not to talk of Joe Ghartey and Addae Nimo.

Yet, there is an artificially induced order being created by the sitting administration to breach the established convention in the selection of the NPP presidential candidate. They first tried to let it seemed like a Bawumia candidature will be a natural choice to fill the Northern void that has perpetually been consigned to the position of running mate and ultimately, a vice president. The Northern gate is represented by the Northern People’s Party of Abayefa Karbo and Chief S.D. Dombo.  Therefore, according to the proponents of the new order, it was time to catapult the neglected Northern gate to the ultimate position of presidential candidate and possibly, the president of the Republic.

The counter to that proposition has been “what about the others who converged with the Northern People’s Party and the Ghana Congress to form the United Party (UP), which the NPP sources its birth?” Other groupings like the National Liberation Movement of Baffour Akoto, Kojo Ayerke’s Trans Volta Togoland, Adamafio’s Ga Shiefo Mokpei all joined forces with others who were opposed to Nkrumah’s Convention People’s Party (CPP) to form the UP. That explains why make had stuck to the conservative outlook of the NPP in the selection of a presidential candidate and for new comers like Bawumia who wants to stake-in a new order, their right to the NPP presidency should be hinged on competence.

The new order in the NPP is being mooted by the governing establishment with almost every appointee of the administration being whipped in line. Even some stalwart Alan advocates who went round preaching the Alan candidature in the past have been cajoled into the Bawumia dream. What should be going for Alan though, is the commitment of the old generation to his cause. Indeed, there are interesting days ahead of the NPP presidential primary.