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Fitch downgrades Ghana’s long-term local currency to RD

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Fitch Ratings has lowered the Long-Term Local-Currency (LTLC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of the nation to restricted default (RD) from ‘CCC’.

This action was taken due to missed payments on certain local-currency bonds issued before the domestic debt exchange programme (DDEP).

Although last month, Ghana’s LTLC IDR was upgraded to ‘CCC’ from ‘RD’ because of the successful completion of the local debt restructuring programme in February 2023, the downgrade reflects missed payments on bonds that were not tendered or held by ineligible entities for participating in the domestic debt exchange.

The government recently announced that it would resume payments on local-currency bonds issued before the domestic debt exchange. However, only coupon payments on the two-year note that matured on 20th February 2023 and the 20-year note maturing in 2039 have been made, and the principal payment on the former note is still outstanding.

While the government has agreed on a pathway toward the settlement of the outstanding debt obligations by 28th April 2023, Fitch is concerned about whether missed payments will be settled for all categories of holders of ‘old bonds’ or only for specific categories.

Fitch has downgraded the issue rating of five local-currency bonds issued before the debt exchange to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’ and has withdrawn the rating on these securities due to limited information and uncertainty regarding the timely servicing of the securities issued before the domestic debt exchange.

However, Fitch has affirmed the ‘CCC’ issue rating of local-currency bonds issued on the completion date of the domestic debt exchange programme, with the first coupon payments on these bonds due in August 2023.

Despite a significant redemption reprofiling and lowered interest rates, Fitch estimates that the present value of public debt-to-GDP has only been reduced by 1% to slightly above 100% of GDP in present value terms, using the standard 5% discount rates that apply in the IMF/World Bank debt sustainability framework for low-income countries.

Fitch also noted that IMF support for Ghana will likely depend on the government’s ability to show a path toward bringing the present value of debt to 55% of GDP over the forecast horizon based on the IMF/World Bank debt sustainability analysis and the ability of official bilateral creditors to provide financing assurances in the context of the Common Framework of external debt restructuring that authorities have requested.

Fitch expects that financing assurances, which will pave the way for an IMF Board approval of the ECF arrangement and for a new debt sustainability analysis to be published, will not be provided before the end of 2Q23. Fitch will assign Ghana’s LTLC IDR based on a forward-looking assessment of its willingness and capacity to honour its local currency debt once it receives satisfactory confirmation that Ghana has settled all the missed payments.

An upgrade of the issue rating on the partially guaranteed notes could result if evidence shows that the partially-guaranteed notes will be excluded from the external debt restructuring.

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Politics

Bawumia- “Mahama’s Economic Record Bad”

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The presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, has openly criticised former President John Dramani Mahama’s economic management, describing it as the worst among Ghana’s Fourth Republic leaders.

According to him, during Mr. Mahama’s tenure, the economy experienced substantial setbacks across multiple sectors, marked by soaring inflation, sluggish growth, and increasing unemployment.

Speaking at the Ghana CEO Presidential Gala in Accra last Thursday, Dr. Bawumia asserted that his criticism was based on hard economic data rather than partisan views.

He contrasted this with what he described as Ghana’s improved economic trajectory under NPP leadership, asserting that Mr. Mahama’s tenure represented a “decisive failure in economic stewardship.”

Dr. Bawumia stressed that his analysis was intended to highlight the need for sound economic management and that his remarks were meant to shed light on measurable outcomes of Mr. Mahama’s policies, which he said weakened the country’s economic resilience.

The NPP presidential candidate expressed his commitment to building on the progress achieved under the Akufo-Addo administration.

He underscored the importance of data-driven policies and positioned himself as the candidate most capable of navigating Ghana through future economic challenges.

“Despite the impact of global economic challenges, it might surprise some, including the former president himself, that his administration ranks the lowest in economic performance among all Fourth Republic leaders,” Dr. Bawumia reiterated.

He continued, “Yet, he speaks about our economic performance as though his was superior.”

Business Development

Dr. Bawumia also used the opportunity to reaffirm his commitment to strengthening business development in the country, stressing that resilient businesses are foundational to a thriving economy.

He praised the role of the private sector in creating jobs, driving innovation, and fostering sustainable growth.

The NPP flagbearer detailed policies introduced by the current administration to support Ghanaian businesses, including initiatives aimed at enhancing entrepreneurship, expanding access to credit, and advancing digitalisation.

According to Dr. Bawumia, these steps are critical to building a competitive, innovative, and resilient business sector.

He promised that, if elected, he would continue to prioritise business growth in order to ensure the Ghanaian economy remains vibrant and competitive on a global scale.

“Ladies and gentlemen, as you may know, Bawumia means business! From banking to vice presidency, my commitment to business development has been unwavering.

“Strong businesses lead to a strong economy—show me a prosperous nation, and I’ll show you resilient businesses behind it,” he concluded.

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NPP, NDC have mismanaged Ghana – GUM

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The Ghana Union Movement (GUM) has criticised the New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) for “mismanaging the country” and supervising the sale of state-owned businesses bequeathed by previous governments.

The Party said the sale of state-owned factories to private individuals and failure to revive defunct state enterprises largely accounted for the growing youth employment situation that had bedeviled the country.

These were contained in a news release issued by the Party’s founder and leader, Reverend Christian Kwabena Andrews, and shared with the Ghana News Agency.

The GUM urged the youth to “be concerned about their future” and vote to break the duopoly enjoyed by the NPP and NDC for decades.

“Embracing both NDC and NPP as a party is just endorsement of the continuity of the Ghanaian predicament. Ghanaian youth must rise to vote massively against these parties, because they were the source of our problems today,” it said.

The GUM said the slow pace of development since the commencement of the Fourth Republic in 1992 justified the call for the “total overhaul” of the 1992 Constitution “considering the mess caused by both NDC and NPP government respectively.”

The Party proposed the adoption of what it termed as “Hybrid African Democracy” which it said was suitable governance model for the country.

“The current model was copied line, hook, and sinker from the West, where they have established and structured institutions to make their democracy work,” it said.

The GUM also called for downsizing of Parliament to reduce the cost of running the business of the House.

The Party said that salaries and benefits awarded to 275 Members of Parliament as well as Article 75 Office Holders “drain the national purse than building it.”

“We urge the public to vote for the Ghana Union Movement for a reliable, better Ghana with the Ghanaian youth as its core,” the Party said.

The GUM caused a stir when it placed third in the 2020 presidential election, beating the traditional Convention People’s Party, People’s National Convention, and the Progressive People’s Party.

The party garnered 105,548 votes, representing 0.805 per cent of the total ballots cast.

Rev. Andrews has indicated that the Party would build on its achievements in 2020 and affect the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.

The GUM has promised to establish factories in every region and operate a free port to boost economic activities and improve the living conditions of the people.

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Bagbin Addresses Media Today

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In a significant development, Ghana’s Parliament Speaker, Alban Sumana Kingsford Bagbin is set to address the media on Wednesday, November 6, 2024.

The press conference, scheduled for 2:00 pm at the Justice D.F. Annan Auditorium, Job 600, Parliament House, aims to tackle critical issues affecting Ghana’s parliamentary democracy.

Recent Developments

Alban Bagbin’s address comes amidst significant political developments in Ghana.

As Speaker, he has played a pivotal role in shaping the country’s legislative agenda.

His leadership has been marked by efforts to strengthen parliamentary oversight and promote transparency.

The engagement seeks to provide a platform for the media to discuss pressing concerns impacting Ghana’s democratic growth.

The Speaker, Alban Bagbin, is expected to shed light on recent events that have shaped the country’s political landscape.

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