Barring any unanticipated shocks, inflation is projected to gradually trend downwards but remain above the upper band of 8±2% until the end of 2025.
According to the May 2023 Monetary Policy Report by the Bank of Ghana, risks to the inflation outlook are fairly tilted to the downside supported by the relative stability in the exchange rate, reduction in ex-pump petroleum prices, alongside base drift effects.
This could mute the upward adjustments in administrative prices.
Given these considerations, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 29.5% in May 2023.
Headline inflation had already declined significantly by 12.9% between December 2022 and April 2023. “The percentage of items in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket with inflation exceeding 50% is receding, an indication of a return to the disinflationary path. Core inflation has also trended downwards, further supporting the disinflation process”.
However, inflation surged slightly to 42.2% in May 2023.
But the Bank of Ghana believes its latest forecasts suggest a disinflationary path on the horizon, supported by the monetary policy tightening, relative exchange rate stability, and some favorable base drift effects.
Domestic price developments
According to the Bank of Ghana, price developments since March 2023 pointed to further easing of inflationary pressures.
Headline inflation decelerated from a peak of 54.1% in December 2022 to 45.0% in March, and further down to 41.2 percent in April 2023, driven by both food and non-food prices.
Food inflation eased to 48.7% in April 2023, from 50.8% in March 2023, and 59.7% in December 2022. Nonfood inflation also declined to 35.4%, from 40.6% in March and 49.9% in December 2022.
The decline in headline inflation was occasioned by a deceleration in prices of both imported and locally produced goods.
Overall, the regulator of the banking industry said, price pressures have eased significantly across all items in the basket, largely supported by tight monetary policy, base-drift effects, relative stability in the exchange rate, and declining international crude oil prices and, in turn, downward adjustments in ex-pump petroleum prices.
Ghana has recorded a 10.7% increase in crude oil production in the first half of 2024, marking a reversal in a five-year trend of declining output, according to a report by Ghana’s Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC).
The growth was largely driven by the Jubilee South East (JSE) project, managed by Tullow Oil, which began production in late 2023. This addition to Ghana’s Jubilee oil field helped boost production to 24.86 million barrels by June 2024, compared to a 13.2% decline over the same period in 2023.
PIAC’s half-year report also highlighted a significant rise in petroleum revenue, which surged by 56% year-on-year to $840.8 million by mid-2024. Ghana, a country that began oil production in 2010, depends on petroleum revenue for around 7% of government income. The report further noted a 7.5% increase in gas output, reaching 139.86 million standard cubic feet by June.
Despite the positive trend, Isaac Dwamena, coordinator of PIAC, cautioned that Ghana’s petroleum sector faces both technical and financial challenges. Ghanaian law requires oil companies to allocate at least 12% of project shares to the state, a mandate Dwamena noted can deter investment due to the high cost. “The state can take 15%, 20% carried interest based on negotiations, and that has been a disincentive,” he explained.
To further drive production, Ghana is planning to sell more exploration rights, aiming to harness its fossil fuel resources while also generating funds to support its energy transition. Major oil companies operating in the country include Eni, Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, and PetroSA.
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has called on universities in Ghana to strengthen ties with government, industries, and the communities they serve to ensure that researches are aligned with the needs of society.
That would contribute directly to the realisation of national development goals, he said.
The President made the call at Nyankpala during a ceremony to inaugurate a three-storey multi-purpose building for the University of Development Studies (UDS).
The building fulfills the President’s promise to the UDS during its 25 Anniversary celebrations.
It is named the “Silver Jubilee Building” in remembrance of the President.
The facility boasts of offices, conference halls, lecture theaters, and houses some faculties of the university.
President Akufo-Addo said universities were “breeding grounds” for ideas, researches and innovations that drove the nation’s progress and should remain actively engaged in the development process.
He said government believed in educating the population as the bedrock of a thriving democracy, a vibrant economy and a just society.
The President, thus, outlined some policies implemented aimed at improving access to education at all levels, which included the “no guarantor policy”.
He said the policy had improved access to tertiary education as it had eliminated financial barriers that historically prevented brilliant students from pursuing higher education.
The “no guarantor policy” for student loans increased the numbers of students seeking tertiary education from 443,978 in the 2016-2017 academic year to 711,695 in the 2020-2023 academic year, an increase of 60.3 per cent.
President Akufo-Addo said his government had extended considerable energy and resources to the education sector, recognising it as the most powerful tool to transforming the nation.
He said: “The considerable budgetary allocations within the period totaling some GH¢12.8 billion, amply demonstrates the shared determination of the Akufo-Addo government to ensure that education becomes a catalyst around which the transformation of our nation revolves.”
The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has announced that it will transition to self-financing for the 2024/2025 cocoa crop season, starting in September 2024.
For the past 32 years, COCOBOD has relied on offshore borrowing to finance cocoa purchases through its cocoa syndication programme. However, the organization is shifting its strategy to reduce dependency on external funds.
Speaking to the media on Tuesday, August 20, COCOBOD’s CEO, Joseph Boahen Aidoo, explained that this new approach is expected to save an estimated $150 million.
“Is it good that always COCOBOD should be heard going to borrow? Are we comfortable with that tag? Today, you have heard that COCOBOD is not going to borrow. It is quite a good time for any human being to learn his or her lessons.
“In 32 years, we have learned our lessons and we think that it is high time we wean ourselves from the offshore international financial markets and then finance the crop ourselves here and that is exactly what we are going to do. And I think it comes with a lot of projectory benefits.
“We are looking for $1.5 billion this crop season and looking at the interest rates last year, which were over 8 percent, plus the cost, it means that we can save more than $150 million by the decision not to go offshore.
He also denied assertions that COCOBOD was short-changing farmers with its pricing of cocoa.
“It is not true that COCOBOD is not giving the farmers a fair price. If you follow the narrative, you will notice that from 2017 on, COCOBOD has even been more than fair.
“The government had been more than fair to farmers because this was a time when prices had collapsed but the government and COCOBOD did not reduce the farmers’ price.”